В уряді назвали альтернативні сценарії розвитку економіки України з врахуванням наслідків поширення коронавірусної інфекції COVID-19. Окрім базового сценарію розглядають оптимістичний та кризовий.
Це випливає з проекту прогнозу соціально-економічного розвитку на 2021-2024 роки, пише РБК Україна.
Оптимістичний сценарій передбачає швидке подолання поширення коронавірусної інфекції. Кризовий – розгортання другої хвилі поширення коронавірусної інфекції або навіть глобальної фінансово-економічної кризи.
Так, альтернативний кризовий сценарій розвитку базується на припущеннях щодо розгортання другої хвилі пандемії у 2021 році, та, як наслідок, входження світової економіки у затяжну рецесію.
За цим сценарієм прогнозується падіння ВВП у 2021 році на рівні 5-7 відсотків з подальшим помірним зростанням в середньому за період 2022-2024 роки на рівні 2,5 відсотка щороку (за базовим сценарієм на 4,6 відсотка відповідно).
Очікується, що менше 50 відсотків мігрантів повернуться на роботу за межами України. Ринок праці (безробіття) зростатиме. Прогнозуються низькі обсяги інвестицій та споживання, що не дозволить вийти на допандемічний рівень, а також уповільнення темпів нарощування обсягів експорту. Дефіцит бюджету зростатиме.
За оптимістичним сценарієм прогнозується прискорене зростання економіки вже починаючи з 2021 року, що дозволить наприкінці 2024 року перевищити рівень розвитку 2019 року на 17,4 відсотка (за базовим сценарієм – на 12,7 відсотка). В середньому за період 2021-2024 роки зростання ВВП прогнозується на рівні 5,4 відсотка щороку з прискоренням зростання до 6,5 відсотка у 2024 році (за базовим сценарієм в середньому на 4,3 відсотка з урахуванням зростання ВВП на 4,5 відсотка у 2024 році).
Також прогнозують, що більше 90 відсотків мігрантів повернуться на роботу за межами України. Ринок праці (безробіття) знижуватиметься, та вийде на допандемічний рівень. Очікується швидке нарощування обсягів інвестицій, споживання та експорту. Дефіцит бюджету знижуватиметься, та вийде на допандемічний рівень.
Водночас в уряді назвали ймовірність розгортання альтернативних сценаріїв. Так, ймовірність справдження оптимістичного сценарію вважають помірною (близько 30%), тоді як кризовий називають малоймовірним.
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